Long-term impact of no-deal Brexit ‘worse than Covid-19’

Leaving the European Union without a trade deal would have a bigger impact on the UK economy in the long term than the damage caused by Covid-19, the Bank of England governor has warned.

Speaking to MPs on the Treasury Select Committee, Andrew Bailey said that a no-deal Brexit would cause disruption to cross-border trade and damage the goodwill needed to build a future economic partnership.

If the UK fails to agree to a deal before the Brexit transition period expires at the end of December it will revert to World Trade Organisation tariffs and trade barriers with its biggest trading bloc.

The central bank governor acknowledged that the fallout from the pandemic and the second national lockdown in England was having a greater short-term impact on the economy.

But he argued that in the longer term, the economic cost of leaving without a deal would be larger than the cost of Covid.

“It takes a much longer period of time for what I call the real side of the economy to adjust to the change in openness and adjust to the change in the profile of trade,” Bailey said.

In September, an analysis by the London School of Economics and UK in a Changing Europe concluded that the long-term economic impact of a no-deal Brexit could be two or three times as large as that of the pandemic.