Avolon, the international aircraft leasing company, has issued its World Fleet Forecast, which projects growth in and changes to the global commercial jet fleet over the next 20 years, the company said.
The analysis includes forecasts of aircraft deliveries, retirements, funding requirements and passenger-to-freighter conversions.
To fund these new deliveries, the company expects that a total of USD 4.3 trillion in additional financing will be required, with USD 700 billion needed over the next 5 years and an average of USD 170 billion annually over the next decade.
Avolon´s World Fleet Forecast covers all Western-built passenger and cargo jets in airline service, plus the main Russian and Chinese types. Aircraft deliveries, retirements and passenger-to-freighter (“P2F”) conversions are projected over a 20 year period. The resulting annual forecast of the in-service fleet is modified by an estimate of the number of aircraft expected to be in storage.
For passenger aircraft, the resulting capacity is compared to a forecast of annual passenger traffic demand. The resulting load factors are used to measure changes in operating efficiency and to estimate the level of capacity surplus or shortfall. Freighter aircraft capacity is benchmarked against forecast demand for air cargo and the proportion of the total that is expected to be transported on dedicated cargo aircraft.
The resulting delivery funding requirements are identified and applied across the range of available financing channels to provide an estimate of the expected evolution of aviation financing over the coming 20 years.
Since its formation in 2010, Avolon has differentiated itself by taking an analytical approach to important industry trends and setting out those views in research papers, industry publications, industry forums and webinars. Analysing and assessing the impact of industry trends is central to strategic decision making and risk management in any business. Avolon´s Thought Leadership agenda is dedicated to sharing our analysis and insight on the fundamental issues facing the aviation industry.
Headquartered in Ireland, with offices in the United States, Dubai, Singapore, Hong Kong and Shanghai, Avolon provides aircraft leasing and lease management services. Avolon is a wholly owned, indirect subsidiary of Bohai Capital Holding Co., Ltd., a Chinese public company listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SLE: 000415). Avolon is the world´s third largest aircraft leasing business with a owned, managed and committed fleet, as of 30 September, 2017 of 915 aircraft.